#Markets in 3 takeaways:
1/ After a spell of sheer despair, some kind of feelgood factor has crept back into risk #assets somehow. Quite crucially though, the best performers within that #bounce have been more or less the worst performers YTD (e.g. #nasdaq100 (% up 7.5% WoW or, alternatively, #ethereum up 10% WoW but still DOWN 66% YTD.
2/ Meanwhile, long term #rates and the #energy complex are sharply down from their peaks (e.g. US10y now at 3.16% against 3.50% on June 16 or US #naturalgas down 29% MoM, feeding in return all sorts of "impending cyclical doom" and other recession narratives within soft consensus.
3/ But wait, wait, wait...Wasn't US10y at 1.49% on January 3rd and isn't the aforementioned natural gas contract still UP a staggering 66% YTD. So, altogether, what we have been witnessing over the last 2 weeks or so still pertains more to end of month/quarter/semester profit-taking on the best long AND short positions than anything fundamentally more ominous; in 4 words, more summer #recess than #recession. So far at least...
Reach out for us for specifics and stay tuned!
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