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CUT THE WRAP - OPUS#5 - Breaking the Waves


The graph below is sheer Beauty...



More than a graph, a GORGEOUS picture...Hokusai-style.

Perfect wave structure: point break, collapsing waves, beach break, gentle waves spilling softly towards the rippled sun-drenched shore...

And what is this? Intervention rate from Reserve Bank of South Africa (#SARB) over the last 25 years. The dynamics - of liquidity.. - has been more than clear over the period. And the allegory doesn't stop here because you can quite clearly see that the tide is STARTING to reverse. Concretely, South Africa announced a #ratehike by 75 bps to 5.50% yesterday, more than the market was expecting. Not quite a tsunami yet, but...

A lot more interesting and relevant than ECB really. Actually, the most interesting thing about #ECB was that, just like when Switzerland hiked last month, SO many market participants seemed to be SO surprised by the 50 bps move yesterday! Interestingly, the graph comes in sharp contrast with the South African one: less poetic or at least more tragic; look by yourself:



The chart is #reporate since 2000 in #Europe of course. Looks more like a once powerful and fertile stream that progressively and sadly morphed into a dry river bed, no?

So, from a pure ecosystem perspective, shouldn't ECB's move yesterday be perceived by herds of investors like long overdue good news, really? You just can't escape the laws of Nature anyway, or at least not forever. But Africa probably understands that much better than we do over here...

Of course, the USD 10 trn question at this juncture could be: what if the heavy downpour leads to monsoon ? But precisely, we are not quite there or at least not yet...

Anyway, we sure do not want to spoil the - beach - party !

Enjoy the waves and Stay Tuned of course !


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