Halfway through the most challenging vintage for #assetmanagement in decades, our overall positioning (more or less underweight / short on virtually all risk assets, which includes anything that looks like a bond then again...) against overweight / long anything commodity-related unsurprisingly outperformed massively YTD.
Having said that, the violent correction experienced since mid-June by #commodities in general and #industrialmetal in general should certainly raise eyebrows if not deeply existential questions...
Still, based on latest macro developments, we reckon that it is still premature to discard the "#inflation is running amok" narrative to simplistically - or somewhat cynically?...- replace it with the "#recession big bad wolf is upon us" one...
That does not imply that we will not / could not switch to the latter at some stage but then again we will wait for more fundamental evidence.
Besides, we have been holding the aforementioned overall positioning long enough (more than a year now) to know that there have been quite a few fairly intimidating "speedbumps" along the way;
put it this way: "#nopainnogain" could well be the best narrative for investment at this tormented juncture...
Incidentally, on June 14th, we started to #shift back to a more #neutral stance on #fixedincome in general and govies in particular which, based on price action ever since, was well-inspired.
To be honest, it may also have been a bit lucky so maybe the ultimate market narrative should be "no pain AND luck, no gain" actually...
Stay tuned for more !
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